Thursday 22 December 2022

Northern...umm Red Dawn...a Question of Weather(ing)

Hello everyone,

Here's hoping you're enjoying some winter weather and keeping cool. While I'm sitting here waiting for my Red Dawn book to arrive, I thought I'd burn some 1's and 0's googling my way through 1985. Specifically, out of sheer curiosity and a little stroll down memory lane, I thought I’d take a look at some historical weather data (thank you Environment Canada) and see what the weather situation was back in the day to see how weather would have affected the Sov's had this whole 'would-have' been…been.

So thanks to my screenshot from the great review video from Miniature Landscape Hobbies, I have an invasion map to look at, and we can check out the northern axis of attack through Western Canada. 


Starting with an airborne drop on 12 November, the Battlefront plan show us a variety of hooks and jabs as the Sov’s employ air assault, motor rifle, and heavy tank formations moving  eastward and south pushing through Edmonton, Calgary, and points South and East up until 30 November down into southern Alberta and Saskatchewan and near Great Falls and Malta in Montana. Looking at the map above and the table below you can see my stations of interest:

Of note, all temperatures are in Celsius; daytime high/overnight low

Station

12 Nov

15 Nov

17 Nov

23 Nov

25 Nov

30 Nov


Prince Rupert

+2/-6; no snow on ground

+4/0; no snow

0/-7; 2 cm snow

-3/-13; 2 cm snow on ground

-9/-17; 2 cm on ground

0/-14; 2 cm on ground

Kitimat

-2/-8; no snow

+5/+1; rain and snow

-1/-5; no snow on ground

-9/-14; no snow

-13/-20; no snow

-6/-11; no snow

Prince George

-10/-21; 40cm snow on ground

0/-10; snow and rain, 42cm snow on ground

-17/-26; 40cm on ground

-18/-28; trace snow, 30cm on ground

-27/-34; 30cm on ground

-17/-29; 30cm on ground

Edmonton

+1/-15; 7cm snow on ground

+6/-3; 4cm on ground

-19/-21; snow, 4cm on ground

-14/-24; snow, 9cm on ground

-28/-32; 10cm on ground

-18/-24; 12cm on ground

Cold Lake

-7/-17; snow and rain, 14cm snow on ground

+1/-15; 16cm on ground

-10/-18; 15cm on ground

+3/-3; 11cm on ground

Not observed

Not observed

Red Deer

+1/-19; 7cm snow on ground

+7/-7; 4cm on ground

-15/-19; snow and rain, 4cm on ground

-11/-25; snow and rain, 8cm on ground

-26/-31; 10cm on ground

-20/-32; 10cm on ground

Calgary

+3/-19; 8cm snow on ground

+11/-1; trace

-12/-19; 2cm on ground

-10/-21; 2cm on ground

-23/-31; 3cm on ground

-19/-30; 5cm on ground

Wainwright

-4/-19; no snow on ground

+6/-10; no snow

-18/-22; no snow

-19/-27; no snow

Missing data

Missing data

Suffield (Medicine Hat)

-9/-20; 1cm snow on ground

+6/-4; trace

-12/-17; 3cm on ground

-12/-23; 4cm on ground

-24/-35; 4cm on ground

-23/-25; 4cm on ground

Fort Macleod

-1/-24; 14cm snow on ground

+6/0; 5cm on ground

-14/-18; 3cm on ground

-12/-29; 3cm on ground

-25/-25; 6cm on ground

-18/-24; 8 cm on ground

Swift Current

-7/-19; 37cm on ground

+5/-5; 43cm on ground

-8/-18; 35cm on ground

-17/-30; 37cm on ground

-24/-26; 31cm on ground

-24/-27; 31cm on ground


As you can see, the weather situation would have been a rather interesting variable to manage...and certainly true to form, Alberta and the Prairies keep you on your toes...Afterall, if  you don't like the weather, just wait a few minutes and it will change.

I would like to say I remember the weather well, just like it was yesterday, but really, I vaguely remember some warm and cold temps. I do remember being in Army Cadets at the time and doing fieldwork in October/November just before the snow hit and I vaguely remember snow on the ground for Remembrance Day that year and thankful that the temps weren't too cold. As the table shows, we had some pretty cold temps near the end of the month and while it didn't necessarily snow a lot, the temps and winds would've been more than enough to give some pause. And then you have Southern Saskatchewan adding some spice with a foot or two of snow. Overall you can see the temperature swings of 20+ degree temperature changes, which aren't uncommon nor extreme, but this would've meant some pretty good winds and potential Chinook conditions in Southern Alberta that could have made any potential ops interesting.

The push past Prince George would’ve been slowed somewhat by the foot or so of snow, not to mention the rain and freezing temps keeping the troops cold. The swing southwards from Edmonton would’ve benefitted from the long stretch of Highway 2 but winds and temps again would’ve kept heads inside vehicles. The transition from Alberta to Saskatchewan would’ve been a bit of a shock with the much increased levels of snow on the ground, and again you could reasonably expect some pretty high winds moving to Swift Current. All in all, some interesting weather variances.

I hope you get a kick out of what could've been or at least what meteorologically was..and if you're gaming any Red or Northern Dawn moments, maybe you add in some additional stressors or weather events to your gaming - maybe digging in is a higher skill roll, not available at all, or just runs like normal. Anywho, hope you enjoy.

Cheers folks. And yeah, this...is not getting old anytime soon.



2 comments:

tim said...

Never mind mid-November, I remember a few halloweens in Saskatoon in the early 80s where there was significant snowfall on the ground!

Winter in the Canadian prairies can be harsh, for sure... but I imagine winter was pretty harsh in large parts of the Soviet Union, so I also imagine they'd be a somewhat prepared for that...

The bigger problem with this invasion plan is that it seems like it was devised by someone who was looking at a road map that showed were ports and cities and roads where with NO IDEA about the terrain those roads were going through!?

I mean, assuming the Port facilities at Prince Rupert were good enough to land large numbers of troops and equipment, quickly enough to build a base of operations to strike inland, they would then have to make their way up Highway 16, which I'm pretty sure is the ONLY road in and out of there, and that first 250Km from the coast to the interior is a circuitous, narrow road winding its way through the Skeena River valley with dense forest and mountains looming on either side!?

All US/Canadian forces have to do is litter that valley with FASCAM and drop a few big bombs on the road (or on the mountains that road is clinging to the side of), blow bridges at Terrace and dozen other places other places and that whole advance just grinds to a immediate halt!

I know, I know... The WHOLE Red Dawn scenario (which I love, and have gamed plenty!) requires some SERIOUS suspension of disbelief... But this one really taxes me.

Stan M. said...

Not to mention the ridiculously long logistics tail…nice single lane lines of communication/movement. I’ll have to wrap my brain behind the how’s at some point, but definitely some ‘go with it’, lol…looking forward to seeing some of the figures. Have a good one Tim!